The first round of French presidential elections resulted with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen up for a run-off on May 7th, with Macron as the projected favorite according to opinion polls. Macron, leader of the centrist movement ‘En Marche!’ came out with 23.7% of the vote while Le Pen, leader of the populist radical right party Front National (FN), won 21.9%. Macron and Le Pen were the projected victors of the first round, as shown in the graph below, so their continuation into the next round has come as no surprise. The winner, and consequentially the next president, could have a vast impact on France’s future due to the candidates’ differing policy views on the EU and immigration. And regardless of the winner, this election has marked a shift in the mainstream of leftist and center-right dominance in French politics, hinting at differing politcal attitudes among the population.
Not only are both of the candidates outside of the political mainstream, but neither of them have served in politics long or have prior experience governing. Le Pen’s campaign has recieved major media coverage due to FN’s racist and anti-Semitic history under her father. Although she has given FN a more delicate tone in the media, the nativist ideology of the party has persisted under her leadership. Her softening of the party’s image has been successful, and is thought to be highly popular among French youth. However, she came in second place among 18- to 24- year olds behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing ‘Unbowed France.’
With Macron as the projected winner, it looks like France won’t leave the EU due to his pro-EU stance. Something to look out for, though, will be the legislative elections beginning in June to see which party will have the majority, and what coalitions will be built. Because, after all, the president is not the end-all-be-all of the trajectory of future political discourse and policies in France.
UPDATE: Le Pen has announced she’s stepping aside as FN’s leader in light of her presidential nomination, saying she wants to be “above partisan considerations.” This move is most likely an attempt to gain more moderate voters by distancing herself from the party. However, if she doesn’t win the presidency, she will probably pick up her leadership role again.
Graphs courtesy of BBC and Dr. Cas Mudde