My favorite holiday comes every year in February. It’s a day full of love, parties, chocolate, fancy dresses, oodles of red, and gifts made of gold. I could of course only be referring to the greatest, most love-filled day of the year: the Oscars.
I started attempting to predict Oscar winners three years ago. Utilizing IndieWire, Awards Circuit, the now defunct Rope of Silicon and Gold Derby aggregates, I compute the predicted recipients of every single category, from Best Actor to Best Action Short. I tend to do pretty well; last year I had a 91% accuracy rating. I’m hoping this year to either get them all correct or only get one wrong. I would also like to provide you with movie context and recommend some high-quality films for you to see this year, instead of the barrage of action sequels, juvenile comedies, and disappointing superhero flicks (looking at you, Suicide Squad.)
Eventually, I’ll be talking about all the categories, but as we are still five months out, many of the categories haven’t taken shape yet. In this article, I am only presenting the current top contenders for each category, but if you would like to read my full analysis, including a plethora of other viable nominees, you can click here to access my Google Doc. Throughout these predictions, you might notice that way more films this year feature black actors and actresses. Although I’m primarily super excited by more inclusion in the Oscar community, I worry this is just the immediate reaction to #OscarsSoWhite and will fade away in the years to come.
And now, I would like to share my journey of predicting the Oscars with you—buckle up, it’s going to be a great time.
Best Picture
1) La La Land (Release date: December 2nd, 2016)
I’m really enthralled by this film and cannot wait to see it. It stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, who I’ve been obsessed with as a couple since Crazy Stupid Love. Also, if you enjoyed Whiplash, Damien Chazelle—the “boy genius”—also directed this film. Furthermore, as a theatre nerd, it’s being described as a modern day Singing in the Rain which excites me to no end.
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Release date: November 11, 2016)
3) Fences (Release date: December 16, 2016)
If you’re interested in previewing this film before the release, I highly recommend reading the play written by August Wilson. Also, Viola Davis is the queen.
4) Loving (Release date: November 4, 2016)
The first time I’ve ever been excited about something based on a Supreme Court case (besides John Oliver’s dog supreme court.)
5) Manchester by the Sea (Release date: November 18, 2016)
6) Moonlight (Release date: October 26, 2016)
7) Lion (Release date: November 25, 2016)
8) Arrival (Release date: November 11, 2016)
9) Birth of a Nation (Release date: October 7, 2016)
This film could falter in popularity due to assault allegations against Nate Parker.
10) Hidden Figures (Release date: January 17, 2017)
Best Director
1) Damien Chazelle for La La Land
2) Ang Lee for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Yes, Ang Lee! Brokeback Mountain is one of my favorite films and I can’t wait to see this one. The preview gives me the feels.
3) Denzel Washington for Fences
I love when actors turn directors. And also, who doesn’t love some Denzel?
4) Jeff Nichols for Loving
5) Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Thoughts: Wow, look at all the women in this category. Such progress.
Best Actor
1) Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
I feel like I have a bias against Casey Affleck because of his association with the Batfleck.
2) Denzel Washington for Fences
3) Joel Edgerton for Loving
4) Ryan Gosling for La La Land
I think I’d die a thousand tiny, happy deaths if Ryan Gosling gets an Oscar nomination.
5) Tom Hanks for Sully
Tom Hanks deserves to get nominated for an Oscar every year for just existing.
Best Actress
Note: in this category, 5 women are nominated. Due to the tie in the #4 spot, the break-off line occurs under 4, but it still includes 5 women.
1) Emma Stone for La La Land
Queen. Also, she’s from Arizona, so AZ pride.
2) Viola Davis for Fences
QUEEN!
3) Ruth Negga for Loving
4) (Tie) Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins and Annette Bening for 20th Century Women
I feel like Meryl Streep could just breathe once in a movie and she would be nominated for every word.
Best Supporting Actor
1) Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
2) Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals
3) Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
I’m in love with Hugh Grant and I was in transition to college when this movie came out, so I need to catch up and see it. If you don’t know who Florence Foster Jenkins is, I highly suggest looking her up because I love this story.
4) Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
5) Steve Martin for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
I have an obsession with traditionally comedic actors taking a dramatic turn, such as Steve Carell in Foxcatcher and Jim Carrey in The Truman Show and Eternal Happiness of a Spotless Mind. I’ve been waiting for something like that from Steve Martin, so I couldn’t be more thrilled.
Best Supporting Actress
1) Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
There is a lot of discussion on the Oscar blogs that this is basically Michelle Williams’ category to lose. Considering the Best Supporting Actress category is one of the classically weak categories, I don’t find this supposition particularly surprising.
2) Naomie Harris for Moonlight
3) Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Remember how we thought Robert Pattinson was going to be the successful actor who came out of Twilight, not the weird, blinky girl? Boy, were we wrong.
4) Nicole Kidman for Lion
5) Aja Naomi King for Birth of a Nation
I hope her performance doesn’t get swept away by the controversy concerning Nate Parker.
Best Animated Feature
Note: in this category, 5 movies are nominated. Due to the tie in the #1 and # 2 spots, the break-off line occurs under 3, but it still includes 5 movies.
1) (Tie) Zootopia (Already in theatres) and Moana (Release date: November 23, 2016)
2) (Tie) The Red Turtle (Release date: January 20, 2017) and Kubo and the Two Strings (Already in theatres)
3) Finding Dory (Already in theatres)
Thoughts: I’m sure everyone is so shocked the majority of these are Disney films.
These are all the predictions I have for this month! Again, if you are interested in reading more about my Oscars predictions, here is the link to the full Google doc once again. I can’t wait to see all these great movies; it seems like it’s going to be a stellar (and way more racially-inclusive) year for the Oscars.