Despite the violent rhetoric flying about the international stage, the possibility of nuclear war with North Korea is essentially nonexistent for the following three reasons:
1. North Korea has no second-strike capability
Second strike capability is defined as the ability to be hit by a nuclear weapon, and then to be able to fire back. The US has second-strike capability because if we were to be attacked, we would be able to fire back due to our vast size and the fact that our nuclear weapons are sprinkled all over the country. North Korea however is extremely small, and a single bomb would destroy their strike capability. Therefore, North Korea has no incentive to fire a weapon at the US, or any of our allies, since it would assure their own destruction.
2. The two biggest powers in the region (China and the US) both have a vested interest in not allowing the North Korean government to fall violently
If the North Korea Government collapsed, there would be an immense flood of desperate, impoverished, starved, and brainwashed refugees into China and South Korea. China doesn’t want this for obvious reasons, and the US similarly wants to protect South Korea from bearing the brunt of a refugee crisis. A transition, not an annihilation, is the goal of the US. And while it’s difficult to speculate on what China wants, it is clear they don’t want war.
3. As strange as it sounds, both Trump and Kim Jung Un are both at least semi-rational actors
Kim Jung Un obviously doesn’t care about his people, but he does care about power. If his country goes to war with a clearly superior force, then he will lose that power. He will do what is best for him, which is to threaten to use weapons in order to obtain food aid to keep his country afloat for another year. Launching weapons would not be to his benefit. Additionally, the US has nothing to gain from a war with North Korea, and Trump wants to keep his poll numbers from dropping any lower. He may be an extremely poor tactician but he won’t instigate an unpopular war (hopefully).