As a self-proclaimed Oscar lover, I can say that I have been counting down to February 28, 2016 since February 22, 2015. The night is finally approaching and I know that millions of film lovers across the country and the world are looking forward to seeing who will get to take home the little gold man on Sunday night. They also have their biases and predictions, and now I’m here to share mine with you!
The great thing about awards season is that the winners of the previous awards, such as the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs), Spirit Independent Awards and even the Critics Choice Awards, give us a look into who we can expect to win, especially in major categories. That way, we get a chance to watch the most popular films and decide for ourselves if we agree with who the Hollywood Foreign Press or SAG-AFTRA chose. In some cases, it even means that we get to look forward to somebody winning an Oscar, because the chances are high if they’ve already won multiple times in their category.
This applies mostly to the winners of the six biggest categories: Best Actor and Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Director and Best Picture. To give you a recap, here are the current Golden Globe and SAG winners for these categories:
Golden Globes:
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy): The Martian
Best Picture (Drama): The Revenant
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Matt Damon for The Martian
Best Actor (Drama): Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Jennifer Lawrence for Joy
Best Actress (Drama): Brie Larson for Room
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs
Best Director: Alejandro Iñárritu for The Revenant
SAGs:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: Spotlight
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Brie Larson for Room
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation
Based on the trends above, you can see that DiCaprio and Larson are consistent in winning Best Actor and Actress, while Best Supporting Actor and Actress has fluctuated here and there. While Kate Winslet won at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, Alicia Vikander won at the SAGs and Critics Choice Awards. Based on the way the Academy tends to vote compared to BAFTA and the other organizations, I have a strong feeling that Alicia Vikander might take Best Supporting Actress (though I would love to see Kate up there accepting the Oscar).
Idris Elba is not even nominated for an Oscar, so Best Supporting Actor will most likely go to Sylvester Stallone. It feels that the category isn’t very exciting this year. All seem to be on an equal level, with nobody jumping out. It’d be interesting if Christian Bale won for The Big Short, because he was the only one out of an “ensemble” cast of sorts nominated, yet all four men are known for being exceptional actors.
Going back to Best Actor and Actress, DiCaprio and Larson basically have it in the bag. Sure, at the Globes, Matt Damon won for The Martian, but the Academy tends to favor the drama category more. Damon shouldn’t really be a threat. (Honestly, if I were a member of the Academy I’d give it to Leo just so that the stupid Leo-Oscar jokes will end once and for all). Neither should Jennifer Lawrence, who honestly does not deserve to win another Oscar for playing the same person over and over again with the same cast and director. Not only was Larson great in Room, but she is an Oscars newcomer, and the wow factor should work in her favor.
Best Director and Best Picture have always been seen as going hand in hand. Last year, current Best Director nominee, Alejandro Iñárritu, won Best Director for Birdman, which went on to also win Best Picture. I personally think that while Iñárritu will win Best Director for The Revenant, he won’t get Best Picture. In what might be an Oscars twist, there’s a high chance that Spotlight might take it. It’s been a little under the radar in terms of media coverage, but Spotlight is a solid film with a great cast and story that might appeal to the Academy. (In an even bigger Oscar twist, it will go to Mad Max: Fury Road). The subtle uncertainty definitely makes things interesting!