The Oscars are coming up soon, and for the first time, I’m actually following movie awards pretty closely. That’s mostly because I’m very invested in Call Me By Your Name, but also because for once, I’ve actually seen a lot of the nominated films. Here are the nominees I think should win in each category and the nominees I think will actually win each category.
Best Picture:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What should win: Clearly, Call Me By Your Name deserves to win Best Picture. If you want an in-depth analysis of why it’s perfect, check out this article I wrote about it. More briefly, Call Me By Your Name is a movie that changes your perspective on the world and is excellently written, shot, directed and acted. Its score is absolutely brilliant and it transports you into its world. Will it win Best Picture? No. But should it? No doubt.
What will actually win: This race is really close between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, but ultimately I think Three Billboards will take home the night’s biggest prize. It’s been winning tons of awards this season, so why not Best Picture too?
Best Director:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Who should win: I think it would be amazing to see a woman take home this award, and who better to win than Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird? I don’t think the movie is Best Picture worthy, but I do think it’s really well directed and Gerwig does a wonderful job of weaving together a touching and funny coming-of-age story.
Who will actually win: Probably Guillermo Del Toro. The Shape of Water is one of the most loved films of the year and Del Toro’s directing has been heavily lauded. He seems like the clear favorite to win.
Leading Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Who should win: I’m completely biased toward Lady Bird, because I think it’s a very cute movie, and I think Saoirse Ronan is pretty cool. I don’t know that she’s actually the best actress in this category, but I like her the best, so that’s who I’d like to see win.
Who will actually win: Frances McDormand has been cleaning up at awards shows this year, so I’m pretty sure she’ll end up as Best Leading Actress.
Leading Actor:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel Esq
Who should win: Definitely Timothee Chalamet! He’s brilliant as Elio, in fact, I’m pretty sure he is Elio. The way he completely embodies and embraces his character is mesmerizing, and though he likely will not win this category, it will be an absolute crime if he doesn’t.
Who will actually win: Sadly, Gary Oldman. The Academy seems to have a bias against young actors (poor Timothee), so Oldman will no doubt win, which is really a shame. He isn’t bad as Winston Churchill, in fact, he’s pretty great. Nothing, however, can come close to Chalamet, at least in my eyes.
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water
Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win: Armie Hammer and/or Michael Stuhlbarg from Call Me By Your Name should have been nominated for this category, so I can’t even bring myself to pick anyone else who should win.
Who will actually win: I think Three Billboards will be the big winner of the night, so I’m pretty sure Best Supporting Actor will come from its cast. If the Golden Globes are a good predictor, Sam Rockwell will likely win Best Supporting Actor.
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape Of Water
Who should win: Hands down, Laurie Metcalf deserves this for her performance in Lady Bird. She was so real and emotional as Lady Bird’s mother, and I don’t think anyone in this category is anywhere near as good as her.
Who will actually win: I would say Allison Janney because she’s won this award at pretty much every awards show this season, but I’m going to be optimistic and say Laurie Metcalf will actually win at the Oscars. For some reason, I have faith in the voters that they’ll pick the clear correct choice in at least this category.
Original Song:
Mighty River
Mystery Of Love
Remember Me
Stand Up For Something
This Is Me
What should win: Obviously I’m going to go with Sufjan Steven’s Mystery of Love for this one and not just because it’s from Call Me By Your Name. It’s an extremely powerful and touching song that I think brings the whole movie together, but it’s also extremely enjoyable to listen to even without having seen the movie (I listened to it a lot before seeing Call Me By Your Name).
What will actually win: I’m thinking Remember Me from Coco. It’s a good song, very heartwarming and the only other nominee that comes close to being as good as Mystery of Love. Mystery of Love won’t win because it’s not as much of a plot progressor (and because there’s no justice in the world), so Remember Me is the next best choice.
Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win: I’m a huge fan of The Big Sick, because it’s the funniest movie of 2017, so I’d love it to win Best Original Screenplay. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon are geniuses and so is their screenplay.
Who will actually win: Probably Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, because it’s winning everything else, so why not?
Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Who should win: At this point, you know I’m going to pick Call Me By Your Name.
Who will actually win: This is an extremely thrilling category, because I think Call Me By Your Name actually will win, as it deserves. The other screenplays don’t really hold a candle to that of Call Me By Your Name.
The Academy Awards will take place on March 4 at 8:00 PM EST. Make sure to watch to cheer on your favorite stars and movies. I’ll be hoping Call Me By Your Name pulls off some miracle wins!